#TrackingTuesday: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic
This #TrackingTuesday, we feature insights into the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic seen across a selection of the 16 indicators recently updated on Tracking Progress. Tracking Progress is DVRPC’s interactive dashboard for exploring Greater Philadelphia’s progress toward the Connections 2050 vision of an equitable, resilient, and sustainable region.
2020 had the lowest count of air quality violation days (eight) from 2000 to 2020. We surmise that it’s the lowest because of the drastic reduction in travel that year due to COVID-19 stay-at-home orders and other changes. The year 2021 saw a rebound to 15 poor air quality days, which is similar to 2019 levels. 2022 then broke the 2020 record for lowest count of air quality violation days, dropping to only four days. We’ll keep monitoring the trend to see if 2022 was an anomaly of weather and other conditions, or a lasting reflection of post-pandemic behavioral changes along with stricter federal standards. We know climate change will complicate the good progress we’ve made. Already we’ve seen more days in 2023 violating standards—including the first time we saw Hazardous levels—due to the wildfires in Canada.
2021 showed an unprecedented drop in "Drove Alone" commutes—more than 10% from 2019 levels. (Note: 2020 data is not available.). 2021’s "Drove Alone" drop was largely due to the 15% gain in "Worked from Home" between 2019 and 2021, with telecommuting representing nearly a quarter of all commutes in 2021. All other non-Single Occupant Vehicle (SOV) modes, besides "Worked from Home," dropped or flatlined between 2019 and 2021. Carpooling went from 7.9% in 2019 to 6.4% in 2021. Public transit had gained in share from 9.4% in 2006 to 10% or more in the last decade—thanks to increases in rail ridership above slight declines in bus ridership—then fell to half by 2021. We expect to see some public transit rebound when 2022 data is released in September, but it will likely not regain 2019 levels. Telecommuting’s trajectory is something to watch.
We monitor a Planning Time Index (PTI) score on our congestion page; the PTI measures roadway reliability and a score of one is the most reliable. PTI was at its lowest (1.21) in 2020 when travel was greatly reduced due to the shutdowns and many jobs switched to remote work and many students started remote learning. By 2021, freeway PTI levels were back to normal (1.36). Something interesting to note is that trips are now more spread throughout the day since the pandemic. As a result, Midday reliability has been decreasing. On freeways, 2022 Midday reliability looked very similar to AM Peak reliability, which has been worsening but not yet up to pre-pandemic levels. We’ll see if this trend continues when we update the data in January.
2020 had a steeper employment drop (4.3%) due to the pandemic than 2009’s Great Recession, which saw a 2.3% decline. Much of the pandemic’s losses rebounded within a year, rather than the slower recovery of the Great Recession. When 2022 data is released in November, we expect jobs to be near or exceed 2019 levels.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused the most significant one-year drop in miles driven (-18% from 2019 to 2020), but was followed by the most significant one-year gain since 2000. That gain brought the region back to pre-pandemic levels (+20% by 2021). We’ll get a read on 2022 trends this fall and see whether mileage continues to climb.