Physical Form

Encourage land use patterns that enhance community character, provide for a mix of residential, commercial, employment and recreational opportunities; and link these activities with transportation facilities.

Policy Background
The health and vitality of the region depend upon creating strong urban centers, limiting suburban sprawl and preserving the rural character of the hinterlands. The Core Cities of Philadelphia, Trenton, Camden and Chester have been losing both residents and jobs over most of the second half of this century. Conversely, the suburban counties of the region have felt the brunt of growth pressures. In order to mitigate the negative impacts of these trends, urban centers must be stabilized, while suburban growth must be concentrated in designated areas with adequate infrastructure.

Measurement
With the 1990 Census as a starting point, this indicator measures the population change in municipalities for areas identified in the 2020 Plan as growth, revitalized, regional or county centers. Regional Centers, such as King of Prussia, are existing centers that serve a regional population with a stable concentration of people, employment and services. County Centers, like Jenkintown, are existing centers of importance within the county that provide a stable concentration of housing, jobs and services. Growth Centers, such as Voorhees, are emerging centers forecasted for growth, which will see an increasing concentration of people, employment and services. Revitalized Centers, like Camden, are existing regional or county centers in need of directed action to reverse the decline in people or employment.

Population changes in these centers are compared to the total county population, excluding the population of centers. Ideally, population growth would occur more substantially in the designated centers than in the remainder of the county. Population data estimates for municipalities are collected bi-annually by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of the Census using the same methodology throughout the region. There are no bi-annual population estimates for centers located in Philadelphia, which are delineated on a neighborhood level. The Census estimates are available through 1998; the 2000 forecast is based on DVRPC analysis.

Results
Half the revitalized centers and county/regional centers lost population between 1990 and 2000, while every county, except Philadelphia, gained in population. Only the regional growth centers gained population in the same time span. Bucks, Chester, Montgomery, Burlington and Gloucester counties had the greatest county population increases. The most significant increases in center population were in the growth centers of Montgomery (e.g., Limerick, Montgomery, Upper Providence) and Burlington (e.g., Mt. Laurel, Evesham) counties, which gained 40.1% and 13.7% respectively. Delaware County had the slowest growth center population increase at .26% (e.g., Springfield). Noteworthy population gains in revitalized centers were primarily located in Chester (e.g., Coatesville, Phoenixville) and Burlington (e.g., Burlington City, Burlington Township) counties. Population losses in revitalized centers were felt in Delaware (e.g., Chester City, Darby Borough), Camden (e.g., Camden, Gloucester City), Gloucester (e.g., Paulsboro) and Mercer (e.g., Trenton) counties. Population growth in regional and county centers was concentrated in Bucks (e.g., Doylestown Borough, Sellersville/Perkasie), Burlington (e.g., Moorestown, Medford) and Gloucester (e.g., Glassboro) counties. Regional and county center declines were witnessed in Delaware (e.g., Media, Upper Darby), Montgomery (e.g., Upper Moreland, Jenkintown), Camden (e.g., Cherry Hill, Lindenwold) and Mercer (e.g., Hightstown) counties.

Policy Background
As the Delaware Valley looks towards 2025, it is the distribution of jobs and people together with the form of the new development, that will determine the impacts on the landscape. Development patterns could transform many rural communities into low-density suburbs comprising single-family detached residential development, office parks and corporate centers. Additionally, the region's species, habitats and ecosystems are under considerable stress from development pressures and are becoming less resilient as a result of these development characteristics.

Measurement
This indicator measures the rates of change in population and developed land acres between 1990 and 1995. Population data were provided by the U.S. Census, and 1995 population was based upon data estimates from the U.S. Census. Developed land data was gathered from DVRPC's land use data file for 1990 (revised) and 1995, and includes acres for single-family detached, single-family attached, multi-family, manufacturing, transportation, utility, commercial, community services, military, recreation and mining land uses.

Results
Between 1990 and 1995, the region witnessed a population increase of 0.6% from 5,182,787 to 5,217,785. By contrast, acres of developed land increased 5.2% between 1990 and 1995. During the same period, significant population increases occurred in Bucks (5.9%), Chester (7.5%) and Gloucester (5.5%) counties. In these counties, acres of developed land increased at a slightly faster pace during the same five-year time period: Bucks (6.1%), Chester (8.7%) and Gloucester (6.2%).

Policy Background
The agricultural heritage and rural character of the Delaware Valley are essential elements in the image, quality of life and economic stability of the entire region. Current development patterns have consumed vast amounts of farmland and continue to threaten the region's rural landscape.

Measurement
This indicator measures the change in acres of land used for agriculture. For the purposes of this indicator, agricultural land includes land devoted to crops, pastures, orchards, tree farms, or other agricultural uses. Agricultural land changes will be compared to themselves over time. Original data was collected from the United States Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and published in the Census of Agriculture. However, due to a change in the definition of agricultural land, to include different land uses (i.e. parkland and open space), the data from the 1998 indicators report could not be compared. DVRPC's Delaware Valley Land Use Information Data Bulletin for 1990 and 1995 were used to provide data for this indicator.

Results
Between 1990 and 1995, the region lost 4.5%, or approximately 28,500 acres, of agricultural land. The five Pennsylvania counties lost 5% of their agricultural acreage while the four New Jersey counties lost 3.5%. The greatest acreage losses occurred in Chester and Montgomery counties. To address this issue, state and local programs, including tax incentives and open space bond initiatives have presently preserved more than 23,000 acres of agricultural land to date, including over 6,500 acres in Chester County and 8,000 acres in Burlington County.

Policy Background
Providing adequate recreational land is essential with the growing population and as a means to counter the pressures of sprawl and decentralized growth. Recreational land not only provides aesthetic and sporting benefits, but encourages an overall sense of community. A permanent loss of park and recreational acreage can contribute to sprawl and scattered development in the region.

Measurement
This indicator measures parkland relative to the long-term needs of the region. Of the almost 2.5 million acres that comprise the Delaware Valley, 65% still remains as "open space", incorporating farmlands, woodlands, vacant areas, and open water. Yet only 11% of the regional area is now protected as federal, state, county, or municipal parkland.

The DVRPC Year 2020 Plan identified the existing parks and natural resources of the region and utilized a method developed by DVRPC to assess the region's long-term needs. Protecting the critical natural resources of the region and using part of these areas to meet the future active and passive recreational needs of the growing population is a key objective of the Plan. A proposed open space network map identifies river and stream corridors, woodlands, and unique natural resource lands while providing sufficient acreage to meet the quantified targets.

Sub-Regional park requirements are based on population-based standards. The method considers the population forecasts by municipality to the year 2025 and assigns park standards based on the average population densities in each municipality, summed to the county level. Regional park requirements are based on the National Recreation and Park Association standards, modified by DVRPC for the Delaware Valley as 25 acres per 1000 population. Sub-regional surpluses in one county do not make up for deficits in others for reasons of accessibility. Therefore in totaling the deficits for the region, surpluses in individual counties or sub-areas are ignored. Philadelphia local park needs are also not included in the regional or sub-region totals. It is important to note that this methodology only considers park and recreation needs based on population growth to 2025. The long-range plan also indicated broader open space goals based on land use conditions. That analysis yielded open space deficits in almost all counties.

Results
There are 231,015 acres of county, state and federal park land in the region in 2000, as compared to 222,158 acres in 1990. At the county level, Mercer, Bucks, Chester and Philadelphia counties appear to have sufficient county parkland to serve their population needs through the year 2025. Gloucester and Montgomery counties require moderate park additions of 875 and 973 acres, respectively, over the next 25 years. Delaware, Burlington, and Camden counties would require additional county parkland of 2,000 to 3,000 acres to meet population needs in 2025. The regional net deficit of county parkland is 9,915 acres.

The Regional Park requirements show a surplus of 115,153 acres in state and federal parks within the four New Jersey counties, due to the extensive state Parks and Forestry holdings in southern Burlington County. On the other hand, the analysis shows a deficit of 72,753 acres of state and federal parkland in the five Southeastern Pennsylvania counties.

Policy Background
While the region's manufacturing base has shrunk in recent decades, the Delaware Valley has become a hotbed for technological advancements including bio-technical, pharmaceutical, and medical innovations. Further, business services, insurance and data processing have rapidly expanded throughout the Delaware Valley. Commercial land use patterns can be illustrated by analyzing office occupancy rates. High occupancy rates may mean that either the demand for office space is high or a shortage of office space exists. Conversely, low occupancy rates may mean that the demand for office space is low or there is an abundance of existing space.

Measurement
This indicator measures the vitality of the region's commercial real estate market. Occupancy rates are provided for the nine county region and Philadelphia's Central Business District (Center City Data is supplied by Black's Guide, Inc., Jackson-Cross Oncor International and Teleres and is updated annually). It is important to note that during the reporting time period for this indicator, Black's Guide was taken over by Dow-Jones but did not facilitate a change in their building database. This indicator will be compared over time, in addition to a comparison of city versus suburban occupancy rates.

Results
Office occupancy rates have generally increased throughout the suburban counties and Center City between 1992 and 1997. Bucks, Chester, Montgomery and Mercer counties, along with Center City, had the highest occupancy rates. Gloucester County occupancy rate data for 1997 was unavailable.