The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) is an interstate, intercounty and intercity agency serving the Philadelphia-Camden-Trenton metropolitan area. As the region's metropolitan planning organization (MPO), the commission provides technical assistance and services to its member state and local governments. Delaware Valley Data is our periodic series of free data bulletins and analytical data reports. This analytical data report provides 2005 population and employment estimates and 2035 population and employment forecasts for the DVRPC region's counties and municipalities. The DVRPC region includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties in Pennsylvania; and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Mercer counties in New Jersey. In the City of Philadelphia (which is both a county and a municipality), estimates and forecasts are provided for each of the City's twelve planning areas.

Population and employment forecasts are a critical component of long-range land use and transportation planning. DVRPC last adopted forecasts through the year 2030 in March 2005. In order to maintain a 30-year planning horizon, the Commission prepared 2035 population and employment forecasts for its member counties and municipalities. These forecasts were formally adopted by the DVRPC Board on July 26, 2007and serve as the basis for the Commission planning and modeling activities.

At the time the Commission prepared the 2030 forecasts, data from the 2000 decennial Census was available to use as a base. For the 2035 forecasts, however, the first step was to develop and reach agreement with DVRPC's member counties on the estimated population and employment in 2005, to be used as the base for the 30-year forecast through 2035. Once agreement was reached on the 2005 estimates, county and municipal level population and employment forecasts for the year 2035 were developed and mid-year forecasts in 5-year increments were calculated. These mid-cycle forecasts are needed for many DVRPC projects, such as conformity determination and transportation facilities programming.

2005 Population Estimates

To estimate each county's 2005 population, DVRPC reviewed and compared the results of four estimation methods:

• The method utilized by the 2005 Census population estimates program (PEP), which incorporates information from existing data series such as birth and death records, federal tax returns, Medicare enrollment, and immigration data. These estimates, released on July 1st of each year, are compiled at the federal level, without the benefit of regional, county, or municipal knowledge. Additionally, current releases include revisions to previous estimates dating back to the most recent decennial census, based on newly reviewed data. DVRPC therefore determined that these Census estimates should be reviewed against other information for reasonableness and adjusted as appropriate, given the impact that the 2005 base would have on the long-range forecasts.
• The estimation method utilized by the American Community Survey. The ACS is a valuable new data source that will eventually provide annual data for small areas that was previously available only No. 14 August 2007 Regional, County, and Municipal Population and Employment Forecasts, 2005-2035 2 through the 10-year Census. The limitations of using ACS data, however, include its extremely small sample size (approximately 1% of all households) and the exclusion of the population living in group quarters in 2005. Reviews of the ACS data have to date found several inconsistencies, including significant under-counting in urbanized areas such as Philadelphia.
• A simple trend method based on population growth rates between 1990 and 2000, using data from the United States Census Bureau's 1990 and 2000 Census 'short form' 100% count questionnaires.
• An age cohort-component model developed by DVRPC that estimates county population by applying known birth and death rates to individual age cohorts and tracking these cohorts over time. Sources of data incorporated in this model include the following:
  • Fertility rates: Fertility rates (commonly referred to as birth rates) are available at the state level. For the purposes of this study, the birth rate from the State of New Jersey was used (rather than the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania), assuming that the rate in Southeastern Pennsylvania is more similar to that in New Jersey than in Pennsylvania, much of which is rural. The source of the data is New Jersey Health Statistics 2003.
  • Survival rates: Survival rates by age and sex cohort are available at the national level. The source of data used in the model is the United States Life Table 1990-2001. The model also assumes that there will be some improvements in survival rates in the future (due to medical advances and healthier lifestyles), based on national research.
  • Population migration, the third component of population change, is also factored into the estimate, by incorporating the known migration rates from previous years for each county and adjusting them slightly based on the growth rates in each county. In Philadelphia, for example, the model applies a slight negative migration factor (meaning that more people are continuing to move out rather than in); in stable or slow growth counties, such as Delaware County, a modest migration factor is applied; and in faster growing counties, such as Chester and Gloucester counties, a higher migration rate is used, assuming that migration will accelerate in the future.

Based on the results of these four methods, DVRPC developed 2005 county-level population estimates as follows:

1) DVRPC prepared an initial set of 2005 county-level estimates by comparing the 2005 population estimates from the PEP and the 2005 ACS with the results of the simpler trend analysis, the more complex cohort component model, and the 2005 estimate prepared as a part of DVRPC's 2030 forecasts, adopted in March 2005. The draft estimates were reviewed and revised as appropriate to correct for counties that were significantly over-estimated or under-estimated and an acceptable set of county level estimates was produced.

2) The draft estimates were then sent to the county planning directors for their review and comment. County comments were incorporated to produce a final set of county estimates, which served as a control total for the development of municipal population estimates.

DVRPC developed 2005 municipal level population estimates utilizing the following methodology:

1) The 2005 Census municipal estimates were used as a base and adjusted to be consistent with the established county control total.

2) Growth rates between 1990 and 2000 were applied to the municipal population numbers from the 2000 Census and then adjusted to equal the county control total.

3) The 2005 estimated population for every municipality was reviewed, to ensure that the estimate was reasonable. This review incorporated both the growth rate analysis and known information about municipal 3 population numbers from previous and ongoing DVRPC work. These analyses resulted in some minor changes, in cases where the population was deemed either under or over-estimated.

4) These new 2005 municipal population estimates were reviewed by the county planning staffs and revised based on their input to produce the final set of 2005 municipal population estimates and final 2005 estimates were accepted by DVRPC's nine member county planning staffs in April 2007.

2005 Employment Estimates
DVRPC generally relies on Census data as its primary source for developing employment estimates. Through the decennial Census, the Census Bureau provides the only available estimates of employment for smaller geographic areas, such as municipalities and traffic analysis zones (TAZs). The question on the Census form, however, asks for information regarding the job and commuting activity of the primary wage earner in the household on April 1st of the Census year. The resulting information therefore accounts for the number of employed persons at work (workers) rather than the number of total jobs, and does not include workers who were absent during the survey period due to illness, vacation, layoff, or other reasons. In addition, the census data does not account for multiple job holding, does not include some types of workers (such as unpaid family members), and sometimes incorrectly codes the place of work.

For 1990 and 2000, DVRPC based its county and municipal employment estimates on data derived from the Census "long-form" questionnaire (completed by about 17% or 1 in 6, of all households). The original Census data was adjusted to account for the missing jobs described above. Other estimates of 1990 and 2000 employment, such as the county-level estimates available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), were used as secondary sources to ensure that the final results were reasonable and accurate. It should be noted that the BLS data underestimates employment in the region by about 8%, while the BEA data overestimates employment by nearly 15%. The BLS data includes only nonfarm, civilian wage and salary jobs covered by the unemployment insurance program, while BEA data includes vacant jobs as well as overseas workers employed by local firms, and can sometimes double-count certain jobs.

DVRPC developed 2005 county-level employment estimates using the following methodology:

1) DVRPC staff first extracted the 2005 "employed persons at the place of work" data at the county-level from the American Community Survey.

2) This data was then factored to account for workers with more than one job, workers who were absent from work during the survey period, and workers who were not included in the Census data.

3) The 1990 to 2000 employment trend was extrapolated to 2005 and the adjusted estimate from Step 2 was compared to this value.

4) The estimate from Step 2 was compared to secondary source estimates, such as the BEA county-level estimates.

5) Based upon the comparisons in Steps 3 and 4, adjustments were made to the factored ACS estimates that appeared significantly over or under-estimated.

6) These preliminary county-level employment estimates were distributed to the county planning staffs for review and comment. County comments were incorporated, resulting in final 2005 county employment estimates. These final values served as control totals for the development of municipal employment estimates.

There is currently no Census product that provides estimates of 2005 employment for all municipalities in the DVRPC region. The recently-initiated American Community Survey (ACS) is an annual program intended to 4 replace the long-form Census questionnaire that will provide annual estimates for all municipalities beginning in 2010. Estimates of 2005 employment from the ACS are currently available at the county-level and for places with populations of 65,000 and greater, but are based on a significantly smaller sample than the long-form questionnaire of Census 2000. Since the majority of the DVRPC region's municipalities have fewer than 65,000 people, ACS data is not yet available for most of the region's communities.

Given that no source of municipal level 2005 employment exists, DVRPC developed 2005 municipal employment estimates as described below.

1) A 2000-2005 employment growth rate was developed for each municipality based upon its household growth rate during this same period, based on the population growth from the Census estimates. For most municipalities, the relative change in employment closely tracks the relative change in households because the number of workers per household is relatively constant and because new households require goods and services that create jobs.

2) The resulting employment for each municipality was aggregated for each given county, and the municipal estimates were factored to equal the county-level control total that was previously established.

3) The resulting 2005 employment estimates were then compared to an estimate derived from extrapolating the 1990-2000 municipal employment change to 2005.

4) Individual municipal employment estimates were adjusted within the county control total based on historical trends, recently constructed commercial developments, and other known data from local land use and transportation studies.

5) These preliminary municipal-level employment estimates were sent to the county planning staffs for review and comment. The county comments were incorporated, resulting in final 2005 municipal employment estimates. The full set of county and municipal-level 2005 estimates were accepted by DVRPC's nine member county planning staffs in April 2007.

2035 Population Forecasts
County-level 2035 population forecasts based on the agreed-upon 2005 population estimates were developed utilizing the following methodology:

1) An initial set of draft 2035 forecasts was obtained by running DVRPC's age-cohort component model (as described in Section 1). The model incorporates existing birth rates, death rates, and survival rates. Population migration (the change in the population that cannot be explained through births and deaths) is also factored into the model, by adjusting the known migration rates from previous years based on the growth rates in each county. While this assumption may be accurate on a regional basis, it is obviously not accurate on a county level. For example, the model assumes that Philadelphia will continue to lose population at approximately the same rate realized between 1995 and 2000 and again between 2000 and 2005 (and therefore under-estimates the City's future population) and over-estimates the future population of counties that grew significantly between 2000 and 2005, such as Chester and Gloucester.

2) A second set of forecasts was developed utilizing the region-wide 2035 population forecast from the cohort component model above but redistributing the total 2035 population to each of the nine counties based on the adopted 2030 forecasts.

3) A third alternative set of forecasts was developed by incorporating the growth rates between each 5-year time period from the Commission's adopted 2030 forecasts as applied to the new 2005 estimates and extending the forecasts from 2030 to 2035 based on previous years' growth trends. 5

4) Based on the steps listed above, three alternative sets of 2035 forecasts were developed for each of the nine counties, resulting in expected minimum and maximum population totals. The draft 2035 forecasts were selected to fall within this expected range, with the regional total similar to that obtained from the age cohort-component model.

The county-level 2035 forecasts were disaggregated to the municipal level based on three data sets:

• 2030 population forecasts prepared by DVRPC and adopted by each county in March 2005;
• DVRPC's 2005 municipal-level population estimates, accepted by each county in April 2007; and,
• Draft 2035 county-level population forecasts prepared by DVRPC in April 2007 and sent to each county on April 30, 2007, for review and comments.

Using these data sets, the following method was employed to develop municipal-level population forecasts:

1) The difference between the municipal-level 2005 population forecast (adopted in March 2005) and the 2005 population estimate (prepared in April 2007) was calculated for each municipality.

2) These differences were added or subtracted as appropriate from the municipal-level 2030 forecasts (adopted in March 2005). These adjusted 2030 forecasts were used as a base for the development of 2035 municipal forecasts.

3) The adjusted 2030 population forecasts were summed and the sum was compared to the draft county-level 2035 forecast. The adjusted 2030 municipal forecasts were then factored to develop preliminary 2035 forecasts, with their sum matching the draft county-level 2035 forecast.

4) All municipal-level population forecasts were then reviewed individually by DVRPC staff and minor adjustments were made. For all counties except Philadelphia, these adjustments resulted in minor changes to the draft 2035 county population forecast (averaging approximately 0.3% in Pennsylvania counties and 0.4% in New Jersey counties).

Forecasts were then developed for the mid-years between 2005 and 2035, in five-year increments. To develop 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 municipal population forecasts, DVRPC applied a formula based on a theory of population growth and decline. A curvilinear line reflecting decreasing rates of growth or decline between 2005 and 2035 is used in this calculation.

Draft county and municipal forecasts for 2035 (including the mid-year increments) were sent to each individual county planning staff for review. While the level of review varied by county, county planners compared the draft estimates to other available information (such as building permit information, site plan review activity, the number of certificates of occupancy issued, and anecdotal information). Based on their comments, a final revised set of 2035 population forecasts was developed. This final set of forecasts was presented to the DVRPC Regional Transportation Committee and the DVRPC Regional Citizens Committee in July 2007, both of which recommended that the DVRPC Board formally adopt the forecasts. The DVRPC Board formally adopted the forecasts on July 26, 2007, with affirmative votes from all voting members except Bucks County. The adopted county-level 2035 population forecasts, including forecasts for the mid-years in 5-year increments, are presented in Table 1 and municipal-level 2035 population forecasts can be found in Appendix A. The region's twenty fastest-growing municipalities by absolute and percent change in population are identified in Tables 2 and 3, respectively.

Highlights

• The DVRPC region is forecast to gain over 630,000 residents between 2005 and 2035 (an 11% increase), with much of this growth concentrated in the suburbs.
• The region's five southeastern Pennsylvania counties are forecast to experience a 10% increase in population, while the population of the four New Jersey counties is expected to increase by 15%.
• The population of the City of Philadelphia is expected to continue to decline modestly through 2015 before rebounding and recovering to the 2005 level by 2035. The share of the region's population living in the City, however, is expected to decline from 27% in 2005 to 24% by 2035, due to continuing population growth in the suburbs.
• The largest percent increases in population are forecast in Gloucester County in New Jersey and Chester County in Pennsylvania, both of which are expected to experience an increase of more than 30%.
• The largest absolute increase in population is forecast for Chester County, expected to gain almost 149,000 residents and surpass Delaware and Camden counties by 2035 to become the region's 4th most populous county. Other counties forecast to see a significant number of additional residents include Bucks County (forecast to gain over 129,000 residents) and Montgomery County (with a forecasted increase of over 113,500 people).
• The two municipalities forecast to gain the most people between 2005 and 2035 (Woolwich Township and Monroe Township) are located in Gloucester County, New Jersey and are both expected to gain over 15,000 additional residents.

Table 1: Population, 2000 through 2035
Jurisdiction	2000 Census	2005 Estimate	2010 Forecast	2015 Forecast	2020 Forecast	2025 Forecast	2030 Forecast	2035 Forecast	Absolute change 2005-2035	Percent change 2005-2035
Bucks County	597,636	624,351	649,187	672,674	694,893	715,819	735,579	753,784	129,433	21%
Chester County	433,512	473,880	505,095	531,971	557,623	582,047	605,271	622,498	148,618	31%
Delaware County	551,989	555,206	556,117	556,979	557,795	558,563	559,288	559,956	4,750	1%
Montgomery County	748,978	780,544	802,340	822,952	842,452	860,816	878,158	894,136	113,592	15%
Philadelphia County	1,517,549	1,483,851	1,475,613	1,472,422	1,474,268	1,476,150	1,478,065	1,480,023	-3,828	0%
5 PA counties	3,849,664	3,917,832	3,988,352	4,056,998	4,127,031	4,193,395	4,256,361	4,310,397	392,565	10%
Burlington County	423,397	446,866	464,968	482,153	498,334	513,569	527,952	541,203	94,337	21%
Camden County	507,889	515,027	516,880	518,632	520,290	521,851	523,326	524,684	9,657	2%
Gloucester County	255,719	274,229	292,486	309,751	326,116	341,468	355,993	369,374	95,145	35%
Mercer County	350,752	365,097	376,738	382,692	389,002	395,652	401,710	403,976	38,879	11%
4 NJ counties	1,537,757	1,601,219	1,651,072	1,693,228	1,733,742	1,772,540	1,808,981	1,839,237	238,018	15%
9 county DVRPC region	5,387,421	5,519,051	5,639,424	5,750,226	5,860,773	5,965,935	6,065,342	6,149,634	630,583	11%
Source: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (incorporating comments from the planning staffs of DVRPC's nine member counties). The DVRPC Board formally adopted these forecasts on July 26, 2007, with affirmative votes from all voting members except Bucks County.

 

Table 2: Municipalities with the greatest forecasted absolute change in population, 2005-2035
Rank	Municipality	County	Absolute change	Rank	Municipality	County	Absolute change
1	Monroe Township	Gloucester	15,553	11	Mantua Township	Gloucester	7,777
2	Woolwich Township	Gloucester	15,129	12	Washington Township	Gloucester	7,497
3	Richland Township	Bucks	10,166	13	Limerick Township	Montgomery	7,494
4	Middletown Township	Bucks	9,990	14	Upper Providence Twp.	Montgomery	7,196
5	Warwick Township	Bucks	9,804	15	Hopewell Township	Mercer	6,982
6	Warrington Township	Bucks	9,521	16	Glassboro Borough	Gloucester	6,880
7	Center City (planning area)	Philadelphia	9,217	17	Medford Township	Burlington	6,816
8	Harrison Township	Gloucester	9,142	18	Franconia Township	Montgomery	6,800
9	Hamilton Township New	Mercer	8,957	19	Upper Uwchlan Twp.	Chester	6,767
10	Hanover Township	Montgomery	8,713	20	Mansfield Township	Burlington	6,669
Source: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, July 2007. The DVRPC Board formally adopted the 2035 population forecasts on July 26, 2007, with affirmative votes from all voting members except Bucks County.

 

Table 3: Municipalities with the greatest forecasted percent change in population, 2005-2035
Rank	Municipality	County	Percent change	Rank	Municipality	County	Percent change
1	Woolwich Township	Gloucester	202%	11	Warwick Township	Bucks	67%
2	New Hanover Township	Montgomery	97%	12	Avondale Borough	Chester	62%
3	Elk Township	Gloucester	93%	13	Upper Makefield Twp.	Bucks	62%
4	Mansfield Township	Burlington	88%	14	Londonderry Township	Chester	62%
5	Elverson Borough	Chester	88%	15	New London Township	Chester	61%
6	Upper Uwchlan Township	Chester	84%	16	Penn Township	Chester	61%
7	Pemberton Borough	Burlington	82%	17	West Rockhill Township	Bucks	61%
8	Harrison Township	Gloucester	81%	18	West Brandywine Twp.	Chester	59%
9	Richland Township	Bucks	81%	19	Solebury Township	Bucks	59%
10	Upper Hanover Township	Montgomery	72%	20	London Grove Township	Chester	58%
Source: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, July 2007. The DVRPC Board formally adopted the 2035 population forecasts on July 26, 2007, with affirmative votes from all voting members except Bucks County.

Map 1 [535k .pdf]
Map 2 [497k .pdf]
Map 3 [497k .pdf]

2035 Employment Forecasts
In general, employment is more difficult to forecast than population, since it is impacted by numerous market factors that are difficult to predict. Various studies and past experience, however, have shown that there is a direct relationship between the number of households in a region (which is a function of population) and the number of jobs. The relative change in employment closely tracks the relative change in households, since the number of workers per household is relatively constant and also because new households require goods and services that create jobs. To forecast future employment, DVRPC calculated the ratio of employment to population for each county and the region as a whole in 1990, 2000, and 2005, and considered the historic trends in these ratios. The ratios were applied to each county's forecasted 2035 population to obtain a set of alternative forecasts, from which 2035 employment forecasts were developed.

Municipal-level employment forecasts were developed using a method similar to that described above for population forecasts. The county-level 2035 forecasts were disaggregated to the municipal level based on three data sets:

• 2030 employment forecasts prepared by DVRPC and adopted by each county in March 2005;
• 2005 municipal-level employment estimates prepared by DVRPC and accepted by each county in April 2007; and
• Draft 2035 county-level employment forecasts prepared by DVRPC in April 2007 and sent to each county for review and comment.

Using these data sets, the following method was employed to develop municipal-level forecasts:

1) The difference between the municipal-level 2005 employment forecast (adopted in March 2005) and the 2005 employment estimate (prepared in April 2007) was calculated for each municipality.
2) These differences were added or subtracted as appropriate from the municipal-level 2030 employment forecasts (adopted in March 2005). These adjusted 2030 employment forecasts were used as a base for the development of 2035 municipal forecasts.
3) The adjusted 2030 employment forecasts were summed and the sum was compared to the draft countylevel 2035 employment forecast. The adjusted 2030 municipal forecasts were then factored to develop preliminary 2035 forecasts, with their sum matching the draft county-level 2035 forecast.
4) All municipal-level employment forecasts were then reviewed individually by DVRPC staff and minor adjustments were made. For all counties except Philadelphia, these adjustments resulted in minor changes to the draft 2035 county employment forecast (averaging approximately 0.5% in Pennsylvania counties and 0.8% in New Jersey counties).

To develop 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 municipal employment forecasts, DVRPC applied a formula based on a theory of employment growth and decline. A curve reflecting decreasing rates of growth or decline between 2005 and 2035 (rather than a straight line) is used in this calculation.

The full set of county and municipal level forecasts for 2035 (including the mid-year increments) was sent to the county planning staffs for review and comment and based on their review, a final revised set of 2035 employment forecasts was produced. This final set of forecasts was presented to the DVRPC Regional Transportation Committee and the DVRPC Regional Citizens Committee in July 2007, both of which recommended that the DVRPC Board formally adopt the forecasts. The DVRPC Board formally adopted the forecasts on July 26, 2007, with affirmative votes from all voting members except Bucks County. The adopted county-level 2035 employment forecasts, including forecasts for the mid-years in 5-year increments, are presented in Table 4, and municipal-level 2035 employment forecasts can be found in Appendix B. Municipalities with the highest absolute and percent changes in employment are identified in Tables 5 and 6, respectively.

Table 4: Employment, 2000 through 2035
Jurisdiction	2000 Census	2005 Estimates	2010 Forecast	2015 Forecast	2020 Forecast	2025 Forecast	2030 Forecast	2035 Forecast	Absolute change 2005-2035	Percent change 2005-2035
Bucks County	267,124	277,886	290,233	301,910	312,957	323,361	333,185	342,236	64,350	23%
Chester County	238,641	253,628	270,079	285,352	299,943	313,815	326,992	337,093	83,465	33%
Delaware County	238,164	237,582	238,728	239,809	240,833	241,797	242,708	243,547	5,965	3%
Montgomery County	492,677	505,952	521,200	535,621	549,269	562,117	574,251	585,430	79,478	16%
Philadelphia County	741,397	728,054	722,800	724,962	727,139	731,831	734,039	736,268	8,214	1%
5 PA counties	1,978,003	2,003,102	2,043,040	2,087,654	2,130,141	2,172,921	2,211,175	2,244,574	241,472	12%
Burlington County	202,535	214,621	223,430	231,760	239,641	247,063	254,072	260,529	45,908	21%
Camden County	216,931	222,721	223,481	224,200	224,880	225,520	226,124	226,682	3,961	2%
Gloucester County	99,467	108,229	115,456	122,291	128,757	134,847	140,597	145,895	37,666	35%
Mercer County	220,915	228,502	236,358	243,788	250,817	257,436	263,687	269,446	40,944	18%
4 NJ counties	739,848	774,073	798,725	822,039	844,095	864,866	884,480	902,552	128,479	17%
9 county DVRPC region	2,717,851	2,777,175	2,841,765	2,909,693	2,974,236	3,037,787	3,095,655	3,147,126	369,951	13%
Source: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (incorporating comments from the planning staffs of DVRPC's nine member counties). The DVRPC Board formally adopted these forecasts on July 26, 2007, with affirmative votes from all voting members except Bucks County.

Highlights

• The region's employment is forecast to gain almost 370,000 jobs by 2035, a 13% increase.
  
• The region's five southeastern Pennsylvania counties are forecast to experience a 12% increase in employment, while the number of jobs in the four New Jersey counties is expected to increase by 17%.
  
• The City of Philadelphia will remain the region's largest job center, with over 736,000 jobs in 2035. Like population, however, the share of the region's employment located in the City is expected to decline from 26% in 2005 to 23% by 2035, due to continuing job growth in the region's suburbs.
• The largest percent increases in employment are forecast in Gloucester County, New Jersey (expected to realize a 35% increase) and Chester County in Pennsylvania (forecast to experience a 33% increase).
  
• The largest absolute increase in population is forecast for Chester County, which is expected to gain over 83,000 new jobs. Other counties forecast to see a significant number of additional jobs include Montgomery County (forecast to gain over 79,000 jobs) and Bucks County (forecast to gain over 64,000 jobs).
  
• Not unexpectedly, the Center City area of Philadelphia is expected to gain the most jobs by 2035, with an expected increase of over 15,000 jobs. Municipalities expected to gain a significant number of jobs include West Windsor Township (Mercer County), East Whiteland Township (Chester County), and Upper Providence and Upper Merion Townships (both in Montgomery County).

Table 5: Municipalities with the greatest forecasted absolute change in employment, 2005-2035
Rank	Municipality	County	Absolute change	Rank	Municipality	County	Absolute change
1	Centre City (planning area)	Philadelphia	15,374	11	Mount Laurel Twp.	Burlington	6,175
2	West Windsor Township	Mercer	9,774	12	Ewing Township	Mercer	6,153
3	East Whiteland Township	Chester	8,735	13	Tredyffrin Township	Chester	6,152
4	Upper Providence Township	Montgomery	8,000	14	Doylestown Township	Bucks	5,809
5	Upper Merion Township	Montgomery	7,866	15	Plymouth Township	Montgomery	5,500
6	West Whiteland Township	Chester	7,502	16	Evesham Township	Burlington	5,090
7	Uwchlan Township	Chester	6,821	17	Hopewell Township	Mercer	5,024
8	Lawrence Township	Mercer	6,768	18 (tie)	Horsham Township	Montgomery	5,000
9	Middletown Township	Bucks	6,568	18 (tie)	Limerick Township	Montgomery	5,000
10	Washington Township	Gloucester	6,511	20	Richland Township	Bucks	4,896
Source: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, July 2007. The DVRPC Board formally adopted the 2035 employment forecasts on July 26, 2007, with affirmative votes from all voting members except Bucks County.

 

Table 6: Municipalities with the greatest forecasted percent change in employment, 2005-2035
Rank	Municipality	County	Percent change	Rank	Municipality	County	Percent change
1	Sadsbury Township	Chester	200%	11	Harrison Township	Gloucester	102%
2	Woolwich Township	Gloucester	188%	12	South Harrison Twp.	Gloucester	99%
3	Modena Borough	Chester	163%	13	Upper Makefield Twp.	Bucks	98%
4	Coatesville City	Chester	128%	14	Valley Township	Chester	93%
5	Elk Township	Gloucester	121%	15	West Vincent Township	Chester	88%
6	West Sadsbury Twp.	Chester	120%	16	New London Township	Chester	84%
7	Warwick Township	Bucks	113%	17	Thornbury Township	Chester	83%
8	Penn Township	Chester	108%	18	Richland Township	Bucks	82%
9	Washington Township	Mercer	104%	19	Lower Oxford Twp.	Chester	82%
10	Franklin Township	Chester	103%	20	Upper Providence Twp.	Montgomery	81%
Source: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, July 2007. The DVRPC Board formally adopted the 2035 employment forecasts on July 26, 2007, with affirmative votes from all voting members except Bucks County.

Map 4 [535k .pdf]
Map 5 [496k .pdf]
Map 6 [498k .pdf]

Appendix A [265k .xls] [41k .pdf]
Appendix B [287k .xls] [38k .pdf]

Analytical report #14 is the latest in a series of bulletins designed to complement our traditional data releases. For more information on Analytical Data Reports, please visit the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission's website (www.dvrpc.org) or contact DVRPC at the telephone number below.

The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission was established in 1965 by interstate compact between Pennsylvania and New Jersey to plan for the orderly growth and development of the region, and to provide a variety of planning and technical assistance services responding to regional issues. DVRPC maintains a significant database for twenty-eight counties encompassing New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Maryland. Included in the database are data profiles at the regional, county and municipal level and for other census geography as requested. DVRPC produces a diverse range of services, including demographic and economic data and projections; mapping and aerial photography; computer assisted mapping; geographic information systems; impact studies; and policy and program development.

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