Regional What-If Scenario Analysis

DVRPC undertook a scenario planning exercise to compare two contrasting development patterns with current land use trends in order to better understand how different development patterns affect land use, transportation, the environment and economic development. This exercise is intended to spur discussion on the long-range planning process and what the region envisions for the future. The findings will inform the Connections update to the region's long-range plan. The resulting report, Making the Land Use Connection examines three very different future scenarios:

• The Recentralization scenario locates future population and employment growth in the region's denser, transit accessible and more walking and biking friendly core cities and developed communities.
• The Trend scenario is based on the Board-adopted population and employment forecasts, with most growth occurring in the more automobile dependent growing suburbs and rural areas.
• The Sprawl scenario accelerates the trend by accelerating the movement of existing population and employment from core cities and developed communities to the growing suburbs and rural areas. This further reduces transit access and increases auto dependence.

Each scenario is developed by estimating future municipal population and employment levels, with differing rates of infill and new footprint development. Total regional population and employment in 2035 is held constant in all three scenarios at 6.15 million and 3.15 million, respectively. DVRPC's UPlan land use model allocates new footprint development by simulating the economic and policy forces that shape where households and commercial interests locate in the region. The scenario population and employment levels forecasted for 2035 are used in DVRPC's Travel Demand Model to simulate future travel conditions. The results of these models and from computing additional indicators are used to compare each scenario through the year 2035, including:

• population and employment levels by planning area;
• number of vehicles;
• driving characteristics (such as average speed, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), vehicle hours traveled (VHT), and delay);
• transit ridership;
• percent of households and jobs with transit access;
• transit score at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level;
• bicycle and pedestrian trips;
• amount of land developed;
• household density;
• residential and vehicle energy use;
• transportation-related emissions;
• CO2 emissions from residential energy use and transportation; and
• average annual household energy and automobile expenses.

The scenarios review their anticipated impacts to issues such as municipal fiscal health and global economic competitiveness. The report also summarizes the assumptions and methodology employed to develop the scenarios.